Wednesday, November 07, 2012

A post-election letter to conservatives

Originally posted on Facebook, with some light edits:

Dear conservative friends - Here's my message to you as a "pro-life", anti-pot liberal from two very red states who knows politics and has been on the losing end of some bruising elections: It will be okay.

As a former professor of mine used to say, a look at history proves that America survives in spite of her leaders, not because of them. He's right. I survived Bush, and you will survive Obama. That's what America does: She survives, endures, grows, leads, and perseveres, and when she does make mistakes (we'll disagree about last night, but surely we agree that there have been devastating mistakes before), she almost always makes up for them. To despair is to abandon your patriotism for America and your faith in God, and I know you're stronger than that.

More importantly, in the long run, our primary focus should never be who is in the White House or the Capitol. To put all our hopes in the ballots of men rather than in God will leave us far worse of than the outcome of the ballot itself, no matter who wins.

Go ahead. Say the country is ruined, the voters were duped, our freedom is gone, we'll never be the same. Of course I disagree; I'm proud of what the U.S. accomplished last night, and we could argue about what happened and what it means. But that's not the point. The point is this: Catharsis is good. Get it out. But on some level, remember that people said the exact same things and felt the exact same way in 2004, 1996, 1972, even, yes, 1984. So take a week, pick yourself up off the mat, and come give us your best shot over this whole fiscal cliff thing. It wouldn't be the same without you.

Monday, November 05, 2012

Final 2012 Predictions

My predictions: Romney wins Florida and North Carolina (Omaha and Indiana also flip but they're more red than swing this time anyway), but Obama wins all the other swing states (yes, VA, OH, WI, NH, and especially CO and NV thanks to field program and Latino vote) and thus wins re-election with 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235. The state I am most uncomfortable about guessing is Florida, with NC, VA, and NH also on the fence, but hey, time to stop hedging and actually guess. Regardless, if Obama loses VA and NH too, he still wins with 286 votes. I think he'll also eke out the popular vote despite Hurricane Sandy suppressing northeastern turnout and Romney racking up the score in the deep South.

Democrats pick up Senate seats in IN, MA, and ME, while losing them in ND and NE. Current party holds in AZ, CT, FL, MO, MT, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI, etc. End result - Dems +1, a far cry from the Dems -2-3 of just a month or two ago. I could also see Dems winning NE, ND, or maaaaaybe NV, and the GOP winning MT or maaaaaybe MO or WI. But again, time to make a real guess.

GOP hold House; slim Dem pickups of maybe 10. Only specific races I'll guess - Guinta (R) holds and Kuster (D) unseats Bass in New Hampshire.