Monday, November 05, 2012

Final 2012 Predictions

My predictions: Romney wins Florida and North Carolina (Omaha and Indiana also flip but they're more red than swing this time anyway), but Obama wins all the other swing states (yes, VA, OH, WI, NH, and especially CO and NV thanks to field program and Latino vote) and thus wins re-election with 303 electoral votes to Romney's 235. The state I am most uncomfortable about guessing is Florida, with NC, VA, and NH also on the fence, but hey, time to stop hedging and actually guess. Regardless, if Obama loses VA and NH too, he still wins with 286 votes. I think he'll also eke out the popular vote despite Hurricane Sandy suppressing northeastern turnout and Romney racking up the score in the deep South.

Democrats pick up Senate seats in IN, MA, and ME, while losing them in ND and NE. Current party holds in AZ, CT, FL, MO, MT, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI, etc. End result - Dems +1, a far cry from the Dems -2-3 of just a month or two ago. I could also see Dems winning NE, ND, or maaaaaybe NV, and the GOP winning MT or maaaaaybe MO or WI. But again, time to make a real guess.

GOP hold House; slim Dem pickups of maybe 10. Only specific races I'll guess - Guinta (R) holds and Kuster (D) unseats Bass in New Hampshire.

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