Saturday, November 22, 2008

Checking my predictions

I posted my White House and Senate predictions on Nov. 1, three days before the election. Now that we’re three weeks post and Missouri and Omaha’s electoral votes have finally been called, I figure it’s as good a time as any to look back on those predictions and see how I did. True, the Georgia and Minnesota Senate races are both as-of-yet undecided, but we won’t know GA until Dec. 2 or MN until mid-December, and I don’t want to wait that long to grade myself.

At the presidential level, I said Barack Obama with 364 EVs. The true result was Obama with 365. I was correct in 47.8 of my state predictions – I thought McCain would win Indiana and Obama would take Missouri, but the two flipped. Both states have 11 EVs, so it didn’t affect my overall total. I also failed to predict Obama would win an EV in Nebraska, one of only two states (along with Maine) that provides for the splitting of its EVs, something that had never happened before. So, 11 balances 11, but Omaha adds one.

At the Senate level, so far so good. I predicted the Democrats would flip seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia. It took quite some time to sort out the Alaska race, but now that it’s been sorted out, I’m 7-7. I also predicted Coleman would beat Franken in Minnesota and Chambliss would beat Martin in Mississippi; those outcomes are still to be determined. At this point I would predict Chambliss in GA, but actually Franken in MN. We shall see.

All in all, though, I’m still perfect in the Senate, near perfect in the Electoral College, and darn good in the state-by-state count. Forgive the self-call, but if I do say so myself, that’s not that bad.

6 comments:

James said...

...A Haughty spirit goeth before a fall. :) With that record, Wayward, you deserve to pat yourself on the back. well done Mr. Politico.

paulas said...

Wow! Pretty damned good. You would have had to be on the ground here in Indiana to have seen how Obama was peeling off Republican votes from one end of the spectrum and the libertarian Barr was peeling them off from the other end.

Jordan said...

Damn you Nostradamus! You shall be the death of us all!

By the by, when's the Second Coming? :P

Nathan Empsall said...

Chambliss wins... I'm still going strong...

Jordan... who's to say Christ hasn't already come back, many times?

Jordan said...

Um, Revelation?

Nathan Empsall said...

Revelation is not actually about the end times.