Joe Biden Can Still Win
The Iowa caucuses are tomorrow night, and New Hampshire follows five days later. I want to make this very clear: celebrity candidates and media entourages aside, Joe Biden can still win this thing. Based on local endorsements and strong pockets of rural support, Biden is in a good position to make a strong fourth place showing - maaaybe even third place - in Iowa, which would leave him as the only candidate on stage with the big three at an upcoming New Hampshire debate. A strong Iowa showing and decent results in New Hampshire would slingshot Biden to another strong showing in South Carolina, where he has a good organization and is already polling in fourth place. The media attention and fundraising such victories would bring would open a path to the nomination for Biden, the most accomplished candidate.
From Time magazine, "Can Biden Defy the Iowa Odds?"
"In addition to the large crowds, Biden yesterday signed up more than 100 precinct captains — people who will stand up and argue for him in the individual caucuses — in a single day and has raised $750,000 online in the last month. And while he hasn't budged much in recent Iowa polls, Biden has gained most in the category of experience. Of the 33% of likely Iowa caucus-goers polled by ABC News/The Washington Post who said experience was the most important quality in a candidate, nearly half said they favored Clinton, 15% said Edwards, 10% chose Biden and 9% picked Obama...
Ultimately, Biden thinks enough Iowans will make a late decision to throw their support behind him that he'll be able to go to New Hampshire with a fighting chance. "People are coming up handing me their Hillary buttons, handing me their Edwards buttons. Last night two Obama precinct captains walked up to me and said 'You know, we're switching.'"
You might also appreciate Biden's words, audience sway Des Moines man and Biden picks up on Pakistan misstep. BFP Communications Director Larry Rasky sent out this press release earliner today, highlighting the top-tier sized crowds Time alluded to.
The Biden Campaign is generating real buzz. Our crowds are growing by leaps and bounds:
* 500+ people yesterday in Des Moines; a "first tier crowd"
* 300 Biden backers in Mason City
* 250 enthusiastic supporters in Dubuque; "a scene more typical of the events of democratic front-Runners"
* An "energetic crowd" in Waterloo; leads to "an endorsement from a key Black Hawk County Democrat"
* 200-strong crowd in Council Bluffs
The growing support at these events are evidence of mounting support for the one candidate in the Democratic field that has the rare combination of experience, a history of pushing for change and a real record of action on the most pressing issues of our time.
These events also demonstrate the large pockets of support for Sen. Biden across Iowa. These immense swaths of enthusiastic Biden backers will make the Senator a viable candidate in many parts of the state. Our situation is far more favorable than the position of many Democratic candidates whose support is a mile wide but only so deep. Our rivals will face much larger hurdles with regard to viability tomorrow, as they struggle to garner 15 percent in any one Iowa precinct.
Our deep bench of legislative endorsers and local elected officials who have pledged their support for Sen. Biden are also of critical importance on caucus night. These community leaders have real experience participating in the caucus process and help rally already committed Biden backers as well as sway caucus-goers who are undecided or have to make a second choice when their primary choice does not reach viability...
In short, the Biden Campaign remains committed, forward-looking and optimistic headed into Caucus Day. The wind is at our back.